The Gambler's Fallacy

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Hook

Is black 'due'?

A roulette wheel lands on red five times in a row. The crowd leans in — black MUST be coming, right? It feels obvious. It's also completely wrong. The wheel has no memory of those five spins. This seductive mistake is the gambler's fallacy, and in 1913 a Monte Carlo wheel landed black 26 times in a row while gamblers lost fortunes betting on red they were sure was 'overdue.'

Independent events have no memory. Past outcomes do NOT change the next probability.

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